What Sharks Can Teach Us About Risk: The Hidden Danger of Survivorship Bias

We’ve all heard stories of success, survival, and those who “beat the odds,” but have you ever stopped to think about the untold stories of those who didn’t make it?

There’s a fascinating psychological trap called survivorship bias that could be distorting the way we see the world—and today, we’re diving deep (pun intended!) to explore this through one unexpected lens: sharks.

The Great White Myth

When it comes to dangerous predators, the great white shark dominates our imaginations. Movies like Jaws have cemented its reputation as the ultimate threat. But did you know that most great white attacks aren’t fatal?

That’s right. Many survivors live to tell their tales, fueling the myth of the “deadly” great white. But the real danger might come from a shark we rarely hear about—the oceanic white tip. Why don’t we hear more stories about them? Because they often don’t leave survivors.

🦈The Unseen Threat: Oceanic White Tips

One tragic example is the 1945 sinking of the USS Indianapolis, when hundreds of stranded sailors spent days in shark-infested waters. The sharks, believed to be oceanic white tips, attacked relentlessly. Few survived. Unlike great whites, these sharks don’t leave behind many survivors to tell the story—meaning their danger remains under the radar.

This is the core of survivorship bias: we often base our understanding of risk on survivor stories, while missing out on the full picture.

🔍 Survivorship Bias in Everyday Life

Sharks aren’t the only area where survivorship bias affects our thinking. In fact, you can spot it everywhere—here’s how it might be sneaking into your decision-making:

• Copying success stories: We’re quick to follow the lead of successful companies and people, but what about those who took the same steps and failed? Take billionaires like Bill Gates or Mark Zuckerberg—media celebrates their decision to drop out of college, but what about the countless others who didn’t succeed? Statistically, college graduates still have better career outcomes overall.

• Business strategies: Companies may try to replicate Netflix’s “radical transparency” or GE’s “fire the bottom 10%” policies without considering how these strategies work in specific environments. Success stories often overshadow failures.

• Scientific research: Even in science, many studies fail to get published unless they show exciting results. This “publication bias” leaves us with an incomplete understanding of the evidence.

🧠 How to Avoid Survivorship Bias

So how can we avoid falling into the trap? Here’s a quick tip: don’t just focus on success stories. When making decisions, stop and ask: “Am I only seeing the survivors? What about those who didn’t make it?”

Take a cue from mathematician Abraham Wald during World War II. The military wanted to reinforce parts of planes that returned from combat, but Wald realized they were missing key data—the planes that didn’t come back. The real danger zones were the places where the planes had been fatally hit.

It’s a simple reminder that the stories we don’t hear are just as important as the ones we do.

Final Thoughts

Whether you’re considering your next career move, analyzing business risks, or even assessing shark encounters, don’t just focus on the survivors. Sometimes, the real lessons are found in the stories that weren’t told.

Success often boils down to a mix of skill, timing, and luck. Make sure you’re seeing the whole picture before making a decision.

Read Next:
Are you curious how survivorship bias might be affecting your career or finances? Stay tuned for more insights in next week’s edition of The Daily Mastery!